Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 0.636594 0.735292 0.841054 0.962453 1.097573 1.242972 1.410876
2025-02-16 0.448013 0.572098 0.715572 0.892282 1.102535 1.343127 1.637594
2025-02-23 0.310091 0.439722 0.601735 0.815659 1.086943 1.415582 1.839472
2025-03-02 0.209588 0.332755 0.499845 0.736658 1.056426 1.465514 2.019633
2025-03-09 0.152311 0.270720 0.444734 0.708369 1.085355 1.591592 2.307068
2025-03-16 0.109005 0.218392 0.393015 0.675803 1.103292 1.704275 2.587767
2025-03-23 0.085245 0.191104 0.373396 0.686548 1.183161 1.908807 3.010865
2025-03-30 0.060013 0.153548 0.329202 0.651325 1.189230 2.007891 3.293916
2025-04-06 0.043910 0.128152 0.300191 0.635559 1.222520 2.148872 3.647791
2025-04-13 0.031398 0.105595 0.270981 0.613895 1.242473 2.269892 3.979814
2025-04-20 0.024312 0.093083 0.258746 0.620934 1.311121 2.472319 4.449665
2025-04-27 0.018182 0.080219 0.242469 0.617078 1.359379 2.644534 4.882585
2025-05-04 0.013329 0.068832 0.227379 0.614794 1.413594 2.836777 5.370789
2025-05-11 0.009774 0.059498 0.214703 0.615506 1.473827 3.044760 5.900034
2025-05-18 0.006536 0.048646 0.194455 0.595323 1.490571 3.177852 6.313400
2025-05-25 0.003983 0.037887 0.170246 0.560434 1.472492 3.246170 6.620371
2025-06-01 0.002734 0.032290 0.159819 0.557494 1.521014 3.440788 7.159010
2025-06-08 0.001752 0.026693 0.146946 0.545281 1.547526 3.595366 7.635386
2025-06-15 0.001326 0.024556 0.145969 0.565665 1.649650 3.903017 8.404473
2025-06-22 0.000765 0.019625 0.131443 0.543819 1.651240 4.012472 8.816339
2025-06-29 0.000465 0.016418 0.122450 0.536341 1.685672 4.189524 9.362272
2025-07-06 0.000257 0.013344 0.112115 0.521978 1.701077 4.327998 9.841716
2025-07-13 0.000167 0.011901 0.109259 0.531610 1.777656 4.597970 10.583692